Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,648$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(389 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,571.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,571.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $465$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(70.1 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{447.8}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 23.0)}}\) (asimptote \(447.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,185$ on 2020-05-04

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.1}{1 + 10^{-0.102 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(335.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.86 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.5}{1 + 10^{-0.090 (t - 11.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-04

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $682$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(50.9 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,390.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 61.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,390.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(7.28 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 18.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $568$ on 2020-05-04

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(364 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,856.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,856.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $179$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(39.3 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{169.7}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 17.7)}}\) (asimptote \(169.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,221$ on 2020-05-04

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,813$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(325 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,967.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,967.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $436$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(41.4 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{560.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 32.2)}}\) (asimptote \(560.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,745$ on 2020-05-04

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,018$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(192 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{989.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 23.2)}}\) (asimptote \(989.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(11.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.0}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $569$ on 2020-05-04

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $367$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(7.85 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{765.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(765.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-04

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $268$ on 2020-05-04

Cameroon⮸

Population $26,545,863$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,104$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(210 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,927.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,927.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(7.07 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73.6}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(73.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,087$ on 2020-05-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Burkina Faso recovered 75%
Niger recovered 64%

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $672$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(186 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{666.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 17.2)}}\) (asimptote \(666.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(11 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47.5}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 19.1)}}\) (asimptote \(47.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $81$ on 2020-05-04

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $755$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(245 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{707.0}{1 + 10^{-0.116 (t - 10.5)}}\) (asimptote \(707.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.04 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(57.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $184$ on 2020-05-04