Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,648$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(389 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,571.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,571.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $465$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(70.1 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{447.8}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 23.0)}}\) (asimptote \(447.8\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,185$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $332$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335.1}{1 + 10^{-0.102 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(335.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.86 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.5}{1 + 10^{-0.090 (t - 11.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $682$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(50.9 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,390.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 61.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,390.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.28 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 18.2)}}\) (asimptote \(31.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $568$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(364 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,856.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,856.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $179$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(39.3 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{169.7}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 17.7)}}\) (asimptote \(169.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,221$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,813$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(325 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,967.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 49.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,967.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $436$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(41.4 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{560.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 32.2)}}\) (asimptote \(560.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,745$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,018$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(192 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{989.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 23.2)}}\) (asimptote \(989.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(11.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.0}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.0\))
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $569$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $367$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.85 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{765.5}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(765.5\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $268$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,104$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(210 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,927.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,927.5\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $64$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.07 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73.6}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(73.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,087$ on 2020-05-04